Next Year’s Novel Awards

With all the awards discussion, I have spent much of the past three months looking back to last year’s publications. But here we are, already a quarter of the way through 2011. In theory, this should mean that a quarter of the year’s novels which are eligible for next year’s award cycles have already been published.

So tell me – of the science fictional novels already published in 2011, which one(s) might you consider nominating for next year’s awards?

10 Responses to “Next Year’s Novel Awards”

  1. Rose Fox Says:

    In the U.S., Zoo City is a 2011 book, so that’s at the top of my list.

    Daniel Abraham’s The Dragon’s Path, and James S.A. Corey’s Leviathan Wakes.

    Joe Abercrombie’s The Heroes.

  2. Rose Fox Says:

    This also reminds me to dig up the data I collected a while back on which months are most likely to see the publication of eventually Hugo-winning books.

  3. Shana Says:

    Rose: I would be very interested in seeing that data! My hunch is that publication in the first few and last few months of the year are most likely to result in books forgotten come award-time.

  4. Rose Fox Says:

    Found it! Pub month distribution of Best Novel Hugo winners from 1990 through 2009:

    Jan 3
    Feb 0
    Mar 4
    Apr 1
    May 3
    Jun 3
    Jul 1
    Aug 0
    Sep 3
    Oct 2
    Nov 0
    Dec 1

    Before 1990 the data skews so heavily toward January that I suspect its integrity, but here’s the full breakdown:

    Jan 14
    Feb 2
    Mar 5
    Apr 2
    May 6
    Jun 9
    Jul 2
    Aug 1
    Sep 4
    Oct 5
    Nov 0
    Dec 3

    November pub dates are clearly doom. I’m surprised August doesn’t do better, though; I think of a lot of good books as coming out in August.

  5. Shana Says:

    What a fascinating data set! Do you know if you collated them from publication date as listed in the book vs. actual release? (The first being easier to track down, but no guarantee of whether a book appears on shelves that month or the next.)

    I am really quite surprised by November. I had assumed it would be a prime time for award winners to be published, with December losing out more heavily.

  6. Rose Fox Says:

    I think I got most of the data from FantasticFiction.co.uk and Wikipedia; not sure what their sources are.

  7. Rich Horton Says:

    Jo Walton’s AMONG OTHERS is at the top of my 2011 list so far.

  8. Jonathan Strahan Says:

    I’d ditto Rich on Walton’s Among Others. Definitely one of the best of the year.

  9. kev mcveigh Says:

    I have been very impressed with Andrea Hairston’s gorgeous Redwood & Wildfire.

  10. Best novels of 2011 so far « Torque Control Says:

    […] in April, these were the books suggested for next year’s award […]


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